Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 4th, 2014–Apr 5th, 2014

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

What's going to happen to the snowpack if it warms up significantly on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday? Read a discussion here...

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: Moderate precipitation expected on Saturday before a ridge of high pressure builds for Sunday and Monday. Saturday: 5-10 cm new snow expected with freezing levels around 1200 m. Winds 40-50 km/h from the SW. Sunday: Scattered showers in the morning, becoming dry in the afternoon with some sunny breaks. Freezing levels around 1200 m. Winds 20-30 km/h from the NW. Monday: Dry. Sunny in the morning, becoming more cloudy in the afternoon. Warm, with freezing levels rising to 2200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Minor sluffing was reported from the Duffey Lake area on Thursday, but no slab avalanche activity was noted. I suspect some relatively small storm slab avalanches occurred Friday in response to the new snow and loading from wind. On Wednesday, a cornice fall on a steep north facing features at 2300m initiated a size 3 avalanche. It likely ran on the early March melt-freeze crust.

Snowpack Summary

5-10 new snow sits above a mix of surface hoar, small grained facets and melt freeze crusts.Recent warm temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack. Down 30 - 50 cm below the surface, snowpack tests are still producing hard resistant planar shears on the late March crust.The persistent weak layers from early March and early February continue to be a concern. The March melt-freeze crust/surface hoar is reported to be down 60 - 100cm. The February crust/facet/surface hoar layer is now deeply buried down 150 - 250cm.The lower snowpack is strong and well settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow with strong SW winds has set up storm and wind slab problems on steep lee terrain features. Watch for sensitive storm slabs lee of both ridge crest and mid slope features like ribs/rock outcroppings.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Three buried weak layers exist in the snowpack. Deep releases have become rare, but I would be concerned about an increased likelihood of a large destructive event during a period of intense warming.

Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried facets and surface hoar.>Consider backing off steep, aggressive terrain if the temperature warms considerably or if the sun hits the slope you are riding.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 7