Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 27th, 2015–Mar 28th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Unusual persistent slabs continue to produce very large human triggered avalanches. See the latest forecaster blog for a more in depth look at this situation: http://bit.ly/1HHQrK2

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Expect up to 5 cm of fresh snow by Saturday morning falling under moderate to strong southwesterly winds with freezing levels back down to 1700 m. Continued light snow flurries and moderate winds are expected Saturday morning before a stronger system brings another 5 cm overnight and 10-20 cm throughout the day on Sunday, with another 10-20 cm on Monday. Freezing levels hovering around 1700 m and strong southwesterly winds expected during the height of the storm on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past week, there have been a number of avalanches to size 2.5 occurring on the mid-March persistent weak layer. Some avalanches have occurred naturally and many have been remote triggered from up to 100m away.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and light rain have promoted settlement within the most recent recent storm snow, but the region has a very serious persistent slab problem just under the surface. A touchy crust/facet interface known as the mid-March persistent weak layer is down 40 to 120 cm. This persistent weak layer continues to produce sudden test results at upper treeline and alpine elevations, especially in the north of the region. Below this, the snowpack is reported to be generally well-settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

High variability and severe consequences makes the mid-March persistent weakness very untrustworthy. Riders continue to remote trigger very large avalanches, even in conservative terrain.

Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.>Avoid steep high consequence features, convexities and areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 5