Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 18th, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada shorton, Avalanche Canada

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Cooling temperatures will make avalanches less likely, but the resulting surface crust will make for difficult travel conditions.

Summary

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, light northwest wind, freezing level climbs to 2000 m, treeline temperatures reach +3 C.

TUESDAY: Clear skies in the morning with light wind and freezing level around 1300 m, then temperatures drop in the afternoon with freezing level down to 800 m, increasing cloud, light snow flurries, and moderate west wind.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, light variable ridgetop wind, freezing level around 700 m with treeline temperatures around -2 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with some light flurries, light wind, freezing level drops to 500 m with treeline temperatures around -2 C.

Avalanche Summary

Some small wet loose avalanches were reported as temperatures spiked on Sunday, however this problem will diminish with cooling temperatures on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Wet surfaces will freeze as temperatures cool on Tuesday and form a widespread surface crust. The exception may be higher elevation north-facing slopes, where there could be roughly 10 cm of snow sitting above crusts. There could be some weak faceted snow forming around these crusts, but avalanches on this layer are unlikely at this point. The lower snowpack is a well consolidated multi-tiered sandwich of crusts and moist snow.

Watch North Shore Rescue's weekly snowpack conditions update from Friday here.

Terrain and Travel

  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.
  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • Pay attention to isolated alpine features as well as cross-loaded features at treeline.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

It could be possible to trigger isolated slabs on steep slopes at higher elevations (especially those without a surface crust).

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Jan 19th, 2021 4:00PM