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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 25th, 2019–Jan 26th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

No major weather systems are headed out way this weekend.  Thin areas are the places where you could awake the basal weaknesses. Most popular areas are hammerred!!!

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Kinda a stable pattern for Saturday.  We may see a few dribbles of snow but nothing major and we need major!!!!  We need snow as we are well below average for this time of year.  Temperature warm up on Saturday and then the cooler air moves in on Sunday.  There is a chance that 10-15cm of snow may fall with an upslope system on Sunday but not all model agree on this occurring. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed over the past 24hrs.

Snowpack Summary

The midpack of the current snowpack is slowly strengthening.  Current two main issues exist within the snowpack.  First, the Jan 17th layer is now buring under 10-15cm of snow.  Not enough load to be a concern yet, but in time this will be a problem layer worth remembering.  Second is the deeper basal weaknesses.  The facets and depth hoar that exist at the base of the snowpack are weak and sensitive to human triggerring especially from a thin snowpack area.  Use careful route selection as you move through the terrain. 

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Two different layers are included in this problem. To make it even trickier, in some places they'll react as one, and in others they will fail separately, but quickly step down. In either case, triggering it will produce a large avalanche.
Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

An improving bond is helping to ease the concern with this layer, but still watch for it in immediate lee areas.
Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5