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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 30th, 2021–Dec 1st, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Reactive storm slabs are likely. 

Continued snowfall and cranking wind is keeping the avalanche danger HIGH. Be patient as the recent storm snow needs time to settle and stabilize. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels will drop faster and cooler in the Northern half of the region. 

Tuesday Night: 10 – 15 mm of precipitation falling as snow in the alpine and rain at lower elevations. Freezing levels dropping to 900 m with alpine temperatures near -3. Ridgetop wind remains strong from the southwest.

Wednesday: 10-15 mm of precipitation and freezing levels dropping to 800 m. Alpine temperatures near -2. Ridgetop wind strong from the southwest.

Thursday: Snow 10-20 cm. freezing levels 300 m and alpine temperatures near -7. Ridgetop wind strong from the southwest. 

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity will likely continue with more snow and strong southwest wind on Wednesday. 

On Tuesday morning several size 2 storm slabs were reported. They ran naturally during the storm.

Over the weekend, several large natural storm slabs (size 2-3) were reported in the last 24 hours in the alpine as well as some small wet snow avalanches near the rain line.

Snowpack Summary

Strong southwest wind and 30-60 cm of recent storm snow fell at upper elevations building new and reactive storm slabs. This new snow sits on buried wind slabs in the alpine. Lower elevation snow became moist with the rain, however; with freezing levels falling by Tuesday night (400 m- 700 m) a crust will likely form. 

Treeline snowpack depths are estimated to be around 200-300 cm and a prominent crust can be found near the base of the snowpack. 

In the Northern part of the region (Bear Pass) two weak layers of surface hoar have been reported in sheltered areas at treeline.  

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Avalanches could run full path.
  • The new snow may require another day to settle and stabilize.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and strong ridgetop wind have formed reactive storm slabs. Deeper slabs will exist on leeward slopes and behind terrain features. 

Cornices have reportedly formed along ridgelines. If they fail, they could trigger an avalanche on the slope below.

 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Almost Certain

Expected Size: 1 - 3.5