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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 12th, 2021–Mar 13th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Rising freezing levels and sunshine will increase the likelihood of avalanches in many areas. Avoid exposure to cornices and steep sun-exposed slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy / light to moderate southwest wind / alpine low temperature near 1 / freezing level 2000 m 

SATURDAY - Mainly sunny / moderate south wind / alpine high temperature near 4 / freezing level 2300 m

SUNDAY - Snow and rain mix, 25 cm/mm / strong south wind / alpine high temperature near 0 / freezing level 1600 m in the morning, dropping to 1000 m in the afternoon

MONDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light variable wind / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1000 m

Avalanche Summary

Rising freezing levels and sunshine will increase the likelihood of avalanches and cornice failures on Saturday. 

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs can be found on leeward slopes at upper elevations and may remain possible to trigger. Solar aspects likely have a crust on the surface, which will become moist when exposed to sun and rising freezing levels. Soft, dry snow may still be found in sheltered, shaded areas. Massive cornices exist on ridgelines, which can act as triggers on slopes below. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Cornices often break further back than expected; give them a wide berth when traveling on ridgetops.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Warm temperatures and sunshine are expected to create prime conditions for wet loose avalanches. Solar aspects will be the most likely trigger areas, but warm temperatures could potentially cause wet loose avalanches on all aspects.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Cornices weaken significantly when exposed to sun and warm temperatures. When they fail, they can have enough mass to be very destructive, and they can also trigger slab avalanches on the slopes below them. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2