Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Watch for wet loose concerns mainly during the afternoon and on steeper solar slopes.
Detailed Forecast
A weak upper trough is passing across the north part of the forecast area Friday night and will pass east of the area Saturday. Only a chance of a little precipitation is expected with a little cooling by early Saturday.  This should keep temperatures cooler Saturday and limit melting and thus limit the extent of wet snow avalanche potential Saturday.
The primary avalanche concern will be wet snow avalanches predominately on solar slopes Saturday.  Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches, roller balls in surface snow and small natural wet loose releases that usually precede more major wet loose snow avalanches. Avoid terrain traps where a small but powerful wet loose avalanche could have unintended consequences.
Cornices will be listed as a secondary concern due to some recent failures, but they should be less likely to fail Saturday. However, continue safe travel techniques by avoiding walking onto or below cornices - many have grown large recently. Cornices often break back further from the edge than expected and can trigger avalanches on the slopes below.
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Snowpack Discussion
A pair of weak fronts crossed the Northwest a week ago Friday and later Saturday, depositing about 5 inches of snow at Hurricane Ridge. Warm temperatures were seen by Sunday and especially Monday.
NWAC observer Katy Reid observed increasingly wet surface snow Sunday afternoon. She reported shallow wet loose avalanches below treeline, but found one larger (D2) wet loose avalanche on a steeper NE aspect below treeline (see picture below).  No reports were available Monday, but warmer temperatures and sunshine likely led to additional wet snow avalanches. Â
Wet loose avalanche near Maggie's Bowl at Hurricane Ridge on Sunday, April 6th by NWAC observer Katy Reid.
Subfreezing temperatures Wednesday through Friday morning and daytime highs in the 40's at the Hurricane Ridge station have likely formed a firm melt freeze crust for the mornings and shallow wet snow conditions by the afternoon hours. Â
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.
A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.
Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1