Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud overnight, 15-30 km/h west wind, alpine temperatures drop to -2 C.MONDAY: Snow starting midday and rapidly accumulating in the afternoon, with 15-20 cm by the evening, 30-50 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures near -1 C, freezing level 700 m.TUESDAY: Snow continues in the morning and eases off in the afternoon, total accumulation of 30-45 cm over the course of the storm, 20-30 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperatures near 0 C, freezing level 900 m.WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, treeline temperatures near 0 C, freezing level 900 m.

Recent avalanche activity has been limited to small slab and loose avalanches in the top 20 cm of snow (size 1). Check recent MIN reports for some examples here and here. Looking ahead, the most likely problem will be storm slabs that form with the incoming storm, however the lingering persistent weak layer in the North Shore Mountains still poses a low likelihood - high consequence problem.

Fresh snow will start to accumulate on Monday. Strong southwest wind will likely form drifts and slabs in exposed terrain. The new snow is falling on a sun crust on steep southerly slopes, and possibly on weak surface hoar crystals on sheltered and shaded slopes.A layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. The layer is likely most prominent in the North Shore Mountains and on north aspects. This layer continues to be reactive in snowpack tests. The problem is not typical for the region and we expect this persistent weak layer to continue to linger.The lower snowpack is generally strong.