Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies, no significant precipitation, light wind from the north, treeline temperatures drop to -8 C.

FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, no significant precipitation, light wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures reach -4 C with freezing level climbing to 1200 m.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures around -8 C.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny skies, light wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures around -6 C.

Avalanche activity began to taper down on Wednesday after the natural cycle on Monday and Tuesday. The cycle included natural storm slab avalanches up to size 2-2.5, and many smaller (size 1-1.5) human triggered avalanches. These avalanches involved the 20 to 40 cm of fresh storm snow and ran on recently buried crust and surface hoar layers. On Wednesday there were still several human triggered storm slab avalanches (size 1-1.5), some of which were triggered remotely (from a distance). Loose wet avalanches have also been reported at lower elevations.

There was concern about the recent avalanche cycle causing large persistent slab avalanches, but there was only one isolated report of a size 3 avalanche in the Esplanade Range on Tuesday (in the eastern Selkirks). Avalanches on persistent weak layers are now unlikely in most parts of the region based on recent weather trends and lack of avalanches, but some extra caution is suggested for those venturing into the eastern Selkirks.

Recent storm snow has likely settled into 20 to 40 cm of heavy powder at upper elevations and moist/crusty snow below treeline (below 1800 m near Revelstoke and below 1500 m near Blue River). Reactive slabs may still be found on wind loaded slopes and perhaps some isolated areas where this snow sits above sun crusts or feathery surface hoar. The snowpack is generally well settled below the new snow, with previous persistent weak layers showing improving trends over the past weeks. This includes two layers of surface hoar and/or crusts buried 50 to 100 cm deep, which are considered unreactive under the current conditions.

• If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
• Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
• Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
• Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.