Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Snow and rainfall amounts vary across the region. Check your local forecasts, ask your local mountain weather experts, and keep a close eye on local weather and snowpack conditions as you travel.

Saturday Night: Cloudy. 2-10 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level dropping to between 500 m and 750 m. 

Sunday: Cloudy. 15-40 cm of snow expected with the higher amounts expected in the Skeena Valley, possibly pushing as far inland as Shames. Strong southwest wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level between 500 m and 750 m. 

Monday: Partly cloudy, clearing through the day. 5-15 cm of snow expected overnight, and a possible trace through the day. Moderate west wind, trending to strong northwest at higher elevations. Freezing level falling to around 500 m.

Tuesday: Scattered clouds. No new snow expected. Light variable winds. Freezing level at valley bottom. Treeline high around -7 °C.

On Saturday northeast of Kitimat, evidence of several wet loose avalanches up to size 2 was reported above treeline. Riding conditions did not sound great. Check out the Mountain Information Network post here for more details. 

Also on Saturday, professional operations around the region reported several large, naturally triggered wet loose and storm slab avalanches, especially at treeline and below. The largest reported were size 3, in the Bear Pass area.  

  

On Friday, a few professional operations across the region reported large natural and explosive triggered loose wet avalanches at and below treeline as temperatures increased.

If you are getting out in the backcountry, and have conditions information, or even just good vibes and good photos to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network (MIN). 

By the end of the day on Sunday, total snowfall for this storm is forecasted to reach 40-80 cm. Expect storm slabs to be deeper and more reactive on north through east facing lee features due to moderate to extreme southwest winds. 

 In terrain around treeline, yesterday's rain moistened the surface snow. Freezing levels drop slightly during the day on Sunday, so that moist snow may now be frozen into a crust. This could improve avalanche hazard, but it will make riding conditions trickier. 

Low elevation terrain that sees moderate to heavy rainfall could continue to be unstable due to loose-wet avalanches or an upside down upper snowpack. 

The early December rain crust is up to 10 cm thick, down 100-200 cm in the snowpack, and exists to an average of 1400 m in elevation. While this layer had generally gone dormant in the region through the cold period, it still has the possibility of waking up and will be tested this week with the forecast warming event and ongoing snow accumulation. 

Extra caution is necessary while the snowpack undergoes substantial warming after a prolonged period of cold conditions. 

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
• Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
• Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.