Avalanche Forecast

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

After much uncertainty, the models have converged on a solution where the South Coast receives the brunt of the storm while the rest of the province gets more of a glancing blow. The region should pick up a significant shot of snow and wind Wednesday night before we move into a high and dry period on Thursday that is expected to last for the foreseeable future. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 600 m, 25 to 35 cm of snow, strong south/southwest wind. THURSDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level rising to around 700 m, moderate south/southeast wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible. FRIDAY: Clear skies in the morning, cloud building throughout the day, freezing level around 750 m, light variable wind, no precipitation expected.SATURDAY: A few clouds, freezing level rising to around 1200 m, light variable wind, no precipitation expected.

No new activity to report from Wednesday, but we suspect that a small natural storm slab avalanche cycle occurred. On Tuesday storm slab avalanches up to 15 cm in depth were very touchy and sensitive to ski cutting, check out these two MIN reports here and here.

The region picked up 15 cm of snow during the day Wednesday with moderate winds out of the east/southeast. This adds to the 20 cm that fell Tuesday. 40 to 55 cm of storm snow fell over the weekend accompanied by strong southerly winds. All of this snow rests on previously wind-affected surfaces and a sun crust on southerly aspects.A hard rain crust that extends into alpine terrain is buried about 60 to 120 cm deep. There are no substantial weak layers below the crust.Cornices have formed on many alpine ridgelines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as they are subject to the strong mid-winter sun on clear days.