Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2018 3:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Dry and Wind Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

A big change in the weather is coming. Temperatures will be near the freezing mark over the next few days. Triggering may be more easy as the snowpack adjusts to this warming.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Finally the warm air seems to be on the way. Tuesday will be mainly cloudy with no precipitation expected. Alpine temperature will reach a high of 0 C, with ridge top winds near 15 km/h from the West. Freezing levels will climb to near 1900m by mid-week.

Avalanche Summary

Loose dry avalanches up to size 2.0 have been occurring in steep terrain on all aspects at all elevations in the past several days, but there was less activity today. No slab activity noted today, but a few have occurred in the past few days.

Snowpack Summary

Another cold night led to surface facetting. Previous storm snow is settling slowly. Alpine areas have a wide variety of wind slab conditions, including bullet-proof hard slab, recently formed soft slabs and buried wind slabs. At Treeline elevations expect isolated slabs, primarily around ridge-crests. Forecasters continue to track the Dec 15th surface hoar, but due to the lack of an overlying slab this layer has not been overly reactive.....yet. In the lower 1/3 of the snowpack the November and October rain crusts are facetting and remain on the radar for future potential avalanche problems.

Problems

Loose Dry

Be cautious in steeper terrain. Sluffs are running far and fast, and may be more likely to be triggered from steep shallow solar aspects when the rocks heat up.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Wind slab conditions are highly variable, including hard slabs, soft slabs and buried slabs. Watch for human-triggerable slabs in steep terrain on all aspects, and take the time to evaluate localized conditions.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2018 2:00PM