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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 7th, 2018–Feb 8th, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Not a good time to be in avalanche terrain of any kind. This includes valley bottom runout zones.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Another storm is on its way! This is expected to start tonight and bring 14cm of snow. Overnight treeline winds will be about 30km/hr from the SW. Tomorrow we are expecting another 12cm. Some models are calling for 35cm in the next 24-36hours. Temps will rise to -6 in the alpine tomorrow. Winds are expected to slow as the storm passes.

Avalanche Summary

With the sudden and unexpected weather pattern, there is an ongoing natural cycle underway. Today's observations are as follows:- K-Pow shared this info: Natural sz4 in the alpine near their operation. Specifics are not known to us at this point, but it cleared mature timber and made new paths.-Commonwealth Ridge, sz3.5, E aspect, very wide propagation, 80-100cm deep, started in the alpine and widened out one trim line.-Ranger Creek, sz3.5 debris made it to the top of the runout (to the pinch for those that know the area)-numerous sz2 slabs at treeline and alpine areas throughout the forecast region, out of steep skiable terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Last night we received more wind than expected. Lots of wind transport involving the storm snow. The winds were out of the north and as such, the new wind slabs are on NE-SW aspects. Temperatures also crept up today to near 0C. This has made for increased slab development as the snow bonded quickly. These new slabs are at all elevations, and all aspects when the older wind slabs are taken into account. The weak layers are much deeper now and very stressed. Some crowns from today were almost 2m deep.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

With the relatively warm temperatures, the new snow is expected to settle quickly and form slabs.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

Present on all aspects. There are actually several slabs that are being lumped together with this problem. In the alpine some are buried and may need a quick dig to find.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 6th surface hoar is down 100cm and the Dec 15 is down 120cm. Any slide on these layers would produce large avalanches.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5