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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2018–Jan 6th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

With new snow and warmer temperatures, the snowpack is entering a time of change. Expect buried layers to become more reactive in the coming days.

Weather Forecast

Flurries and freezing rain at lower elevations as the first in a series of coastal fronts arrives this afternoon. Freezing levels spike at 1800m today and then drop off again as a SW flow brings up to 30cm of new snow by Monday. Light SW winds, gusty at times. Here's hoping the forecasted system has the strength to keep the arctic air at bay.

Snowpack Summary

The Dec 15th surface hoar is the main layer of concern. Reports of whumphing, cracking and small slides around tree-line can be attributed to this layer. Slab development has been slow with the past cold, but warming temps and solar input will contribute to slab development over the Dec 15th layer. A thin crust has formed on solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed yesterday in the highway corridor. A field team on Macdonald West Shoulder was able to ski cut 2 small slabs on the December 15 Surface Hoar Layer in steep, unsupported terrain.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The December 15 surface hoar layer is widespread around treeline and buried 60cm. Cold temps have kept the slab from settling and gaining cohesion; however, this is expected to change as temperatures rise and new snow load is added.
Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes. Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2