Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 12th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.
JH,
Avalanche Canada
The weather and snowpack conditions are changing, and so should our mindset!
The new snow will not likely bond well to previous weak surfaces. Expect fresh storm slab activity, and the possibility of avalanches stepping down to deeper weak layers, producing large destructive avalanches.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
There were about a dozen avalanches recorded in the Highway corridor January 10th-12th. Most of them were from extreme terrain on Mt MacDonald and Mt Tupper. Notably, there was a size 3.0 slab avalanche from MacDonald gully #10 on Thursday, which ran well on to the fan.
On Wednesday, explosive stability tests produced six size 1-2 avalanches. They were mostly very soft slabs failing on the Jan 3rd Surface Hoar which was down about 15cm. The 7th explosive scrubbed down to ground on a shallow rocky rib, and then stepped down to the Nov 17th PWL, 1m deep, resulting in a size 3.
No new avalanches were reported from the back country in Glacier National Park on January 10th-12th. However, there were several avalanches reported in the immediate vicinity of Rogers Pass. These were mostly wind slab and persistent slab avalanches, with many large enough to injure or kill a person.
Snowpack Summary
Storm slabs will continue to build through until early Saturday morning, as continued new snow buries two weak layers of Surface Hoar (January 3rd and 12th) separated by 10-25cm of previous low density snow.
The December 23rd facet interface is down ~60cm and appears to be gaining strength. This layer remains a concern in shallow snowpack areas, where the mid and lower snowpack are made up primarily of weak facetted crystals.
The November 17th facet/crust/surface hoar layer is down ~100cm and has become less reactive in snowpack tests. When it does fail, there is a dramatic 'drop' of the entire snow column. Spooky!
Weather Summary
On Friday the snowfall rates should peak, with an additional 10cm forecast to fall, along with moderate to strong SW ridgetop winds, and freezing levels possibly climbing as high as 1800m.
An additional 5cm is forecast for Saturday, with light winds and a 1600m freezing level.
On Sunday, temperatures cool and the sun should make an appearance later in the day, as the storm moves past Rogers Pass.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Carefully manage your exposure to overhead hazards while entering and leaving riding areas.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs will build through early Saturday, with ongoing snowfall, Southwest winds and warming temps. These new slabs are building over a couple of weak Surface Hoar layers separated by ~15cm of low density snow.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
40-70cm of settled snow buries the Dec 23 facet interface. This layer is of particular concern in steep rocky areas, with thin coverage, where the majority of the snowpack is weak and facetted.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
The Nov 17 layer, down 70-130cm, consists of facets, a rotting crust in some locations, and decomposing surface hoar. Though becoming less likely to trigger, the resulting avalanche would be quite destructive.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 13th, 2023 4:00PM
