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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2014–Jan 1st, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Little Yoho.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!  The incoming weather system Friday-Sunday may bring enough snow and wind to bump up the hazard on the touchy surface hoar layer.  Watch for slab development on this layer.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with light flurries for Thursday, highs of -6C.  A low moving down from the NW will bring flurries starting Thursday night through to Sunday. A total of 22 cm may fall.  The change may be gradual, but the combination of snow & wind will make the surface hoar layer more susceptible to triggering & we may start to see some natural activity.

Snowpack Summary

With a total snowpack depth of just over one meter, two weaknesses exist within this snowpack. The Dec 18 surface hoar layer is alarmingly reactive down approximately 30 cm, and while there is no slab overlying it now we expect problems with subsequent snowfalls (or winds). Additionally the base of the snowpack is weak with facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed or reported. A large settlement was observed on the Dec 18 surface hoar down 30 cm by a group en route to Isolated Col.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

20-40cm of soft snow is bonding poorly to the Dec 18 layer of large surface hoar on a crust. Any slab development above this layer should be treated with suspicion, such as any wind affected slopes.  Dig down and look for it, and test the slab above.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

While the cold temperatures have stabilized the snowpack temporarily, it's overall structure remains weak. Travel under and beside avalanche paths is reasonable, but continue to avoid or be very careful when touching any avalanche start zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3