Spring conditions typically means hazards are greatest during the heat of the afternoon. Start early and finish early.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Expect skies to cloud over on Monday as a weak disturbance arrives overnight Monday. It's a "cold front" so temperatures will cool and freezing level to lower -- looks like freezing level should hover between 100m and 1500m through Wednesday. It's a weak disturbance so only a few millimeters of precipitation is expected unless some localized convective cell happens to form over your valley in which case there might be 10cm of snow at high elevations. A mix of sun & clouds is the general pattern.
Avalanche Summary
With the arrival of spring, field observations and data are very limited in the region. No new avalanche reports does not mean avalanches are not occurring. One should expect cornices to continue to fail, at times triggering avalanches on the slopes below. Similarly, one must expect solar radiation and warm temperatures to weaken the snowpack, triggering loose wet and possibly wet slab avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
Moist or wet snow exists on all aspects at all elevations. Any surface crusts that form overnight will quickly break down during the day. The snowpack's strength is directly related to the thickness and strength of these crusts. Where there are layers in the snowpack, they are generally bonding. A widespread crust/facet layer from early February and depth hoar at the bottom of the snowpack (primarily in northerly & inland areas) are dormant. Strong, thick crusts in the upper parts of the snowpack have limited the reactivity of these old layers; however, they could potentially once again produce isolated yet large avalanches with prolonged periods of warming.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose wet sluffing is possible on sun exposed slopes with sunshine or warm afternoon temperatures. The intensity of the sun and warmth directly effects he size and length; wet slabs are also possible, especially at lower elevations.
Avoid steep sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet. >Be cautious of wet sluffing in steep terrain. >
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
The timing of failures is unpredictable. Unsupported sections are extra suspicious. Dropping chunks are a hazard in themselves and they may also trigger a slab avalanche on the slopes below. Watch and limit your exposure to overhead hazards.
Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges. >Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes. >
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Apr 11th, 2016 2:00PM
