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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 8th, 2019–Feb 9th, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions on Saturday.  Natural avalanches are likely at upper elevations as snow and strong winds form fresh slabs on old weak surfaces. Stay well out from under steep slopes and avoid avalanche terrain above treeline.

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

On Friday, the North Cascades experienced a gradual shift to unstable weather with light snowfall, variable winds, and highs in the teens. The storm will intensify Friday night and Saturday. Several inches of new, low-density snow and gusty northeast winds will bring very dangerous avalanche conditions. Of most concern are shallow snowpack areas in the eastern portion of the zone.

The new snow will bond poorly to weak and variable old snow surfaces. We may be tracking this interface for some time into the future.  Expect blustery conditions and fresh wind slab formation Saturday. This added load has the potential to wake up buried persistent weak layers. In wind-sheltered areas, loose dry avalanche concerns may also develop. The most dangerous conditions exist at upper elevations where travel in and below avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Surface hoar and weak facets blanketed many slopes as of Thursday. This could become a weak layer buried by the incoming storm. Photo Josh Hirshberg

Snowpack Discussion

Regional Synopsis Coming Soon

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

You can trigger wind slab avalanches in open terrain at all elevations. Stay off of leeward slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Steer around wind pillows and drifts. With drifts forming on old, weak snow, wind slab avalanches may be easier to trigger than you might expect. You may also be able to trigger these avalanches from further away than is typical. Strong and gusty northeast wind with plenty of light dry snow will efficiently build slabs. Expect wind drifting in open areas below treeline. 

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Persistent Slabs

The new snow is beginning to stress weak layers at the old snow surface and deeper into the snowpack. Watch for cracking, listen for collapses, and dig down to identify these layers of weak, sugary snow with snowpack tests. Near and east of Mazama, the snowpack is often less than 4 feet deep and highly variable. Here, a layer of buried surface hoar and facets may be found a few feet beneath the surface. You may find these to be best preserved on shaded, and open slopes above 5,500ft. Give the snowpack time to adjust before traveling in avalanche terrain.

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.

 

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

 

This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.

Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1