Avalanche Forecast

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

It's been a quiet few weeks avalanche-wise in the Hurricane Ridge area. That will begin to change on Friday with an increasing hazard heading into the weekend.

NWAC professionals in the Hurricane Ridge area on Thursday found about 5-7 inches of low density snow above the most recent thin crust.  The snow surface was weaker (more faceted) on north through east aspects near and above treeline in the terrain they traveled. We know that this interface will be the focus for the increasing avalanche hazard, but we don't know if the tipping point for dangerous conditions will occur Friday afternoon or hold off until later.   

Be aware of limited snow cover at lower elevations where early season hazards exist below roughly 4500' in the Hurricane Ridge area. Snow depths increase sharply above this elevation.   

Forecast schedule

For the 2018-19 winter season, avalanche hazard ratings will be issued for the Olympics Friday through Sunday and during holidays. We will resume issuing ratings when access is once again available following the recent government shutdown.

General snowpack and weather summaries will be available on days that the Hurricane Ridge road is closed.

February 5, 2019

The active weather pattern this past weekend brought most areas a shot of new snow. Sadly, it seems like areas close to Seattle may have gotten more snow than the mountains. As a result, we are generally finding lower avalanche danger in most of our forecast zones. The general exception to this rule is the mountains closest to the Canadian border. The Baker area received 4” of water since January 31st. Here are a few general trends we see at this point.

The surface is where it’s at:

A combination of high elevation rains in January, a week of warm high pressure, and minimal new snow loads allowed most of our snowpacks to gain strength. In many locations, we are finding that proverbial Cascade “brick.” It’s not that you can’t find any weak snow in the mid- and lower snowpacks, but as a general rule, the snowpacks in our forecast regions are strong. Consequently, most unstable snow will be limited to the snow surface and the last interface buried in the most recent storm. For example, this week observers are primarily tracking the snow surface and the interface buried on February 1st or 3rd, depending on your location.

Very strong surface snow. This crust was buried in most locations Feb 1 or 3. Photo: Chip Daly

How can you use this? Keep your eyes open as you travel and look for areas that appear different. Why are they different? Could this be a rogue wind slab? Is the sun affecting the snow in this location more than other areas? Is the snowpack thinner and weaker in this area? When you find unique areas, it may be worth giving them a wide berth.

Still watching the far-east:

There is a lingering exception… areas east of highway 97 and east-slopes nearer to the Columbia River. As you travel further east in our forecast area, the snowpack gets thinner, weaker, and more variable. So, why are we seeing the avalanche danger go down in these locations? In general, there just isn’t a substantial slab over the buried weak layers. Two things could change that. 1. A wind event. One quick way to get a slab is to build one with some dry snow and moderate winds. That’s why we have wind affected areas on our mind when we travel to areas with thinner snowpacks. 2. A big storm. While areas like the Wenatchee mountains have seen their fair share of snow this season, these areas haven’t seen a big loading event. How would this weak snowpack handle a big storm? It’s hard to say at the moment. Just remember, if you go to mountainous areas around Twisp, the Wenatchee Mountains, or the East-South zone, you may encounter snowpacks with lingering persistent weak layers.

A shovel tilt test highlights weak snow interfaces in a very shallow east-side snowpack. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

The danger is real:

Even though the snowpack is strong and the avalanche hazard is generally low, there are other risks in the mountains that may pose a very real danger to backcountry travelers. The one we keep hearing the most about is very firm and slick surfaces. You are most likely to find icy surfaces in locations that did not receive much snow during this recent storm. When conditions are like this, it’s tough to gain traction, and any slip may result in a long uncontrolled fall.

Icy snow surfaces have been making travel conditions difficult, and sometimes dangerous. This firm, slick layer is buried below the most recent snow in many locations. Photo: Dallas Glass

What’s next?:

Given the strength of the snowpack, it will likely take a larger storm to ramp the avalanche danger back up. When will that storm arrive? We’ll keep watching the weather patterns and let you know. Make sure to check the latest weather and avalanche forecast before you head into the mountains.

-NWAC team