Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Purcells.
Isolated wind slabs may be found up high. The freezing level is expected to rise Thursday afternoon: continue to assess the surface snow and expect loose wet activity if the snow is moist or wet.
Confidence
Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries, trace accumulation, moderate west wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1900 m.
THURSDAY: Mix of sun and clouds with isolated flurries, accumulation trace to 5 cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1900 m rising to 2500 m.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain, accumulation 10 to 15 mm, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature 1 C, freezing level 2500 m.
SATURDAY: Mix of sun and clouds with isolated flurries, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1900 m.
Avalanche Summary
Small loose wet avalanches were triggered during afternoon warming. Otherwise, no new avalanches were observed.
Snowpack Summary
Recent snowfall amounts are variable across the region, ranging from 10 to 30 cm, with the most on the west side of the region. This snow has remained dry in northerly alpine terrain. All other aspects and elevation bands will have either wet surface snow or a melt-freeze crust due to an increasing freezing level and heat from the sun. The snow may moisten on Thursday as the freezing level rises to 2500 m.
Weak and sugary faceted grains remain at the bottom of the snowpack in the alpine, producing a low likelihood but high consequence scenario. Steep, rocky areas with a shallow snowpack are the most likely places to trigger this layer.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Recent snow has been redistributed by southwest wind in exposed alpine areas. The most suspect slopes are terrain features immediately adjacent to ridges.
- Use small slopes without consequence to test the bond of the recent snow.
- Expect conditions to change rapidly with aspect and elevation.
- Be careful with wind-loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Loose Wet
The snow surface will weaken rapidly with the freezing level rising to 2500 m and possibly some rain on Thursday. This will quickly increasing the likelihood of triggering loose wet avalanches.
- Minimize overhead exposure and avoid steep slopes during periods of rain.
- Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs and gullies that increase the consequence of small avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5