Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected in all elevation bands by Tuesday afternoon with human triggered avalanches becoming likely as the storm intensity increases.
Detailed Forecast
An incoming frontal system on Tuesday should largely stall along the Olympics during the day with light to moderate rain and snow for the Olympics increasing during the day along with a warming trend.Â
Storm slabs should become increasing unstable during the day Tuesday, with larger slabs possible on lee slopes near treeline. Wind slab is possible mainly above treeline, but will not be listed as a top avalanche problem Tuesday. Shallow loose wet avalanches will become likely Tuesday as snow turns to rain near treeline.  Â
Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected in all elevation bands by Tuesday afternoon with human triggered avalanches becoming likely as the storm intensity increases.Â
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Snowpack Discussion
Deep storm snow from late December should be settled and stabilized at Hurricane. About 6 inches of snowfall was seen at Hurricane last week.
NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane on Friday and generally found a right side up stable snowpack. Older wind slab was limited to 15-30 cm pockets near ridges and tests indicated little propagation. Matt also observed surface hoar primarily on sheltered north to east slopes.Â
Mild snow levels and light to moderate rain up to 5-6000 feet Monday has probably eliminated the surface hoar layer moving forward.Â
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1