Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 6th, 2014–Apr 7th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Solar radiation still has a strong effect on the snowpack even on cloudy days. As the storm snow becomes heavier throughout the day it will be easier to trigger in steep terrain.

Weather Forecast

We are under more of north westerly flow with a brief ridge of high pressure that will keep things mostly dry for today with a mix of sun and cloud. Expect local convective squalls producing short periods of snowfall with winds picking up in the alpine to 50km/h from the west. Light to moderate snow is expected tonight into tomorrow morning.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of recent storm snow sits over the April 2 surface hoar/crust layer. No crust was observed on due north aspects. The Mar 22 Cr is down 50-60cm, the Mar 2 is down 1.0-1.25m, the Feb 10 is down ~1.75m. The mid and lower snowpack are very well settled.

Avalanche Summary

2 size 2.0 natural avalanches east and west of the Rogers Pass summit within the highway corridor.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The snow load has steadily increased with winds up high. A surface hoar/crust layer is buried 30-40cm depending on aspect. As this snow becomes moist it will become more susceptible to human triggering.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The upper snowpack consists of many buried crusts on solar aspects. Triggering these layers is most likely from slopes where the snowpack is shallow and/or if there is strong solar radiation even if this is for brief moments.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3