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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2013–Jan 7th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

The high pressure system has been pushed out by new snow and wind, it's time to return to more conservative terrain choices.

Weather Forecast

Northwesterly flow moving eastward will end significant precipitation. Light amounts are forecast in the unsettled and cool air mass left in the wake of last nights storm.

Snowpack Summary

20cm of new snow over a facetted old snow interface. The Dec 25 and January 4 surface hoar layers are down around 30cm and 20cm respectively where present, mostly from 1500 to 2000m. The mid-pack is still well settled except in shallower areas where it has become weak and facetted. The Nov 6 crust is down 130cm.

Avalanche Summary

1 loose natural avalanche, solar triggered, size 1.5 observed east of the Roger's Pass summit on a south aspect at 2590m.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

23cm of new snow sits over an old snow interface that is not likely to bond quickly. This new snow will add to the sluffing that has been observed over the past week when triggered.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Winds picked up last night and are still on the rise. Be aware of  the changing snow conditions as you enter more wind exposed terrain.
Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2