Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 27th, 2015–Jan 28th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Avalanche danger will slowly decrease as temperatures fall. Continue to be cautious in your route selection and expect very challenging ski conditions.

Weather Forecast

A cold front will move through the region today, pushing out the warm air and bringing a trace of new snow overnight. Temperatures should drop below freezing by the end of the day, which will lower avalanche danger. On Wednesday expect some sunny periods with isolated flurries, temps hovering around -3'C and gusty winds. Thus will be similar.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15mm of rain over two days made the top 20-40cm of snow is moist with a weak surface crust forming overnight. The Jan15 surface hoar layer is down 60-90cm is becoming more stubborn to trigger but is still likely to propagate. The Dec 17 surface hoar/ crust complex is down 130-180cm and is still reactive in snowpack tests. Cornices grew large.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity tapered off yesterday when the rain stopped but a few loose wet avalanches to size 2 were observed in the Hermit drainage. Avalanche control triggered slab avalanches to size 3 failing on the Jan 15th layer.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Natural and artillery triggered avalanches continue to fail on the Jan.15 surface hoar layer, now buried 60-100cm deep. This layer continues to propagate widely into very large avalanches. Avalanches may step down to a deeper layer from mid Dec.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Loose Wet

Temperatures stayed warm overnight. It is presently +3'C at 2000m. Until temperatures fall below freezing, the snowpack will remain weak. Loose avalanches have triggered slabs on deeper instabilities and gouged to ground when they run into tree line.

Breakable crust makes for tough ski conditions.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

40cm of storm snow was followed by 15mm of rain. This moist slab is likely to be touchy until temperatures drop below freezing.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2