Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 3rd, 2016–Apr 4th, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Warm weather avalanche problems like cornices and loose wet slides will remain front and center until we get a real overnight refreeze. Early alpine starts are essential to beat the heat!

Weather Forecast

Today will be a mix of sun and cloud with potential for strong solar effect. Freezing levels rise to 1900m this afternoon with an alpine high of 2. Temperatures should briefly cool off tomorrow, as we receive more precip however they go back up to 3500m later in the week

Snowpack Summary

Warm temps and 3mm of rain at treeline have left the top meter of snow isothermal and moist. Surface crusts forming overnight are weak and break down quickly. Multiple crusts in the top meter of the snowpack provide sliding surfaces. Dry snow exists on steep N aspects in the high Alpine.

Avalanche Summary

Large loose wet avalanches continued to be observed, triggered by strong solar input during the heat of the day. Overnight a South facing avalanche path on Mt Cheops ran sz 3 to the end of runout. Artillery avalanche control produced large loose wet avalanches on solar aspects, running well into the run-out zones of their paths.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Warm temps and 3mm of rain last night prevented the moist surface snow from refreezing. The upper snowpack will destabilize quickly with daytime warming. If the sun continues to shine today, southern aspects will be particularity vulnerable.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Very warm temperatures may weaken large cornices that exist along many ridges. Cornice size & extent can is difficult to asses and should be done cautiously giving a wide margin.

Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Warm temps could wake up deeply buried weak layers. Recent tests on these crusts indicate that they will likely take a heavy trigger like a cornice fall or another avalanche, but if triggered very large avalanches are possible.

Choose well supported terrain without convexities.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4