Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 26th, 2020 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs.
mconlan,
Avalanche Canada
Snow, wind, and warming are forecast. Riders are starting to be able to trigger slabs over a buried surface hoar layer and the consequence of doing so will only increase as more snowfall accumulates. Conservative decision-making is recommended.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light to moderate west wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1300 m.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level rising to 1500 m.
FRIDAY: Morning snowfall then a mix of sun and cloud, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1600 m.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1400 m.
Avalanche Summary
Many small (size 1 to 1.5) storm slab avalanches were triggered by humans on Tuesday, with a couple of them being large (size 2 to 2.5). They occurred at all elevation bands, between 1600 m and 2300 m, and generally on north to east aspects but a couple released on southerly aspects. They were commonly 20 to 40 cm deep and released on the surface hoar layer described in the Snowpack Summary.
Snowpack Summary
Around 30 to 40 cm of snow overlies a widespread layer of surface hoar that was reported to be between 5 and 20 mm in size and at all elevations. This same layer of surface hoar has been reported as sitting on a thin melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed aspects, which is a particularly nasty combination. This snow has been reactive to human traffic and natural triggers, particularly around treeline and alpine elevations where the overlying snow has slab properties. As this snow continues to gain slab properties with more snow, wind, and warming air temperature, activity on this layer is expected to increase and avalanches will grow in size.
The early-February melt-freeze crust down 70-100 cm is dormant but should be monitored. The remainder of the mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.
Terrain and Travel
- Stick to simple terrain or small features with limited consequence.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Around 20 to 40 cm of snow is sitting on top of a widespread layer of surface hoar found at all elevations and on all aspects, and more snow will slowly accumulate in the coming days. On sun-exposed aspects, the surface hoar is sitting on a melt-freeze crust, which is a particularly nasty combination. To date, the layer has been most reactive between around 1700 and 2300 m and where the overlying snow has gained slab properties from snow load and wind affect. This elevation band of reactivity may increase in the coming days as new snow, strong wind, and warming air temperature may increase slab properties.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 27th, 2020 5:00PM
