Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, a trace of snow, light west winds gusting at ridge top, alpine temperature -13 C.

Wednesday: Cloudy, a trace of snow, 5-10 cm possible in western parts of the region, light west winds gusting at ridge top, alpine high temperature -7 C.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, scattered flurries with trace accumulations, light west winds gusting a ridge top, alpine high temperature -5 C.

Friday: Partly cloudy, a trace of snow, light variable winds, alpine high temperature -6 C. 

During the weekend storm, numerous size 2-3.5 slab avalanches released naturally. A few were thought to have stepped down to deeper layers. These avalanches primarily occurred on leeward aspects at treeline and alpine elevations. Reports indicate that cornices may be reaching their breaking point and may act as triggers for these avalanches. Below tree line, wet loose avalanches were releasing naturally during the warm temperatures on Saturday. 

In the aftermath of the storm, explosives have continued to trigger large avalanches breaking on deeply buried weak layers on a variety of aspects above 2200 m. This activity outlines the fact that this layer remains a problem in the region. Large alpine features, especially rocky, thin snowpack areas are the most likely places to trigger this layer. Easier-to-trigger wind slab avalanches or cornice fall may have the potential to step-down to this layer.

There have been substantial changes to the snowpack over the past few days. 40-60 cm of snow fell during the weekend storm above 1900 m. Higher snow totals fell in the northern and western parts of the region. Extreme winds originating from the southwest and shifting to the northwest have created a tricky loading pattern at treeline and above and have elevated concern for cornice triggers. These winds have drifted the snow into slabs on leeward terrain features that may remain prone to human triggering. During a warming event Saturday night, rain saturated snow surfaces up to around 1900 m that have since formed a crust.

A weak layer of surface hoar may still be found about 90 cm deep around Golden and Kimberley, 50 cm deep around Invermere, and 130 cm deep along Kootenay Lake.

As usual for the Purcells, the base of the snowpack contains basal facets. It remains possible to trigger these deep weak layers in shallow rocky start zones or from a heavy trigger such as a cornice fall. 

• Be aware of highly variable recent wind loading patterns.
• Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
• Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.