Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

3-5 cm forecast overnight with freezing levels remaining above 1500 metres and strong southwest winds. Another 10-15 cm during the day on Saturday with strong southerly winds and freezing levels creeping up to 2000 metres. There is a chance of sunny periods in the late afternoon when a brief break between storm pulses moves across the region. Warm, wet, and windy on Sunday. A weak ridge should drop freezing levels to valley bottoms by Monday morning, before broken or scattered cloud allows the sun to bring the freezing level back up to 1500 metres during the day.

On Thursday, natural avalanches up to size 2.0 were reported as well as several remotely triggered slab avalanches up to size 2.0. These slides occurred on all aspects, at all elevations, and were generally 40-60 cm deep. Reports from Tuesday and Wednesday include more of the same plus evidence of a widespread natural avalanche cycle that occurred early Monday, primarily in the Monashee Mountains, with avalanches up to Size 3 running on surface hoar buried late February.

40-60 cm thick storm slabs are bonding poorly to on a crust on previously sun-exposed slopes and surface hoar (February 27th) on shady and sheltered slopes. Thicker and touchier wind slabs are lurking throughout exposed terrain at and above treeline. A weak layer of surface hoar and/or a sun crust buried February 21 is now close to a metre below the surface. Where it exists, this layer may become reactive to human triggers as the overlying slab develops. The surface hoar and/or crust layer buried February 10 is likely down over a metre. This layer was less reactive over the past week with cooler temperatures, but remains a concern for large triggers like cornice falls or a smaller avalanches stepping down. Cornices are large and potentially weak and should be avoided where possible.