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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2015–Jan 8th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Stevens Pass.

Avoid steep sun exposed slopes if snow becomes wet in more than the top few inches. Smaller loose wet avalanches usually precede large loose wet avalanches.

Detailed Forecast

Another dry, sunny and warm day is expected Thursday. Freezing levels should be in the 11,000 foot range with light winds. Amazing weather for January.

Loose wet avalanches while unlikely should be the main avalanche problem on Thursday. Remember that areas with shallow snow may become unstable first or may initiate from rocks or vegetation. Avoid steep sun exposed slopes when snow becomes wet in more than the top few inches.

Snowpack Discussion

West of the crest about 5-15 inches of snowfall Sunday was followed by about 3 to 7 inches of rain on Monday with a warming trend especially Monday. Wow!

This produced avalanches west of the crest. The most avalanche observations came from the Baker area. The ski patrol there Monday reported widespread natural avalanches with consistent crown depths of about 2 feet. NWAC observer Jeff Hambleton scouting the aftermath on Tuesday in the Mt Baker area found evidence of widespread loose and slab avalanches. An avalanche class also reported unstable snow Sunday via the NWAC Recent Observations.

And now sunny unseasonably warm weather is being seen in the Olympics and Cascades mid-week. West of the crest this has been causing draining, consolidation, stabiilzing and a resetting of the upper or entire snowpack.

NWAC observer Dallas Glass at Stevens Pass today reported that the snowpack was wet top to bottom with greatly varying snow depth depending on aspect.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.