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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2016–Mar 13th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Banff Yoho Kootenay.

Recent wind effect treeline and above combined with some incoming snow may keep the hazard elevated into the middle of the week.  Monitor surface snow for slab conditions and use a probe to keep tabs on the strength of the mid and lower snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Following near treeline freezing levels and an expected  warm, gusty, wave of precip Saturday night, temperatures should drop overnight with treeline temps only climbing to -5C values for Sunday under a weak, dirty ridge. Up to 10cm is expected to arrive with moderate winds at treeline Monday as the cool temperatures persist.

Snowpack Summary

20-40 cm of snow now sits above crusts to 1800m and all solar slopes. Recent moderate S-SW winds with strong gusts have formed slabs in lee areas.  The snowpack is highly variable but in the 150cm average found at TL, a firm upper pack sits over a weak mid-pack of facets. In thin snowpack areas tests results are typically collapses near the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches to size 2.5 occurred Thursday morning after the passing of the storm. Most appeared to be windslabs in lee or cross-loaded alpine areas, many of these failed on crusts seen on S and W aspects, a few notable examples of deep persistent slabs were seen on east and north aspects.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.