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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2014–Mar 22nd, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Solar radiation is unpredictable at this time of year. When the sun comes out, it comes out strong and could affect those buried weak layers to cause avalanches or cornices to break. Pay attention to this and make the appropriate decisions.

Weather Forecast

Unstable weather pattern over the interior will result in light snow amounts with mainly cloudy skies with possible breaks throughout the day. A weak ridge of high pressure will build for tomorrow clearing the skies a little more for Saturday

Snowpack Summary

15cm of new low density snow sits over 60cm of settling snow. Both the Mar 13 (down ~50cm) and the Mar 2 (down ~1m) crust/surface hoar layers are becoming patchy but reactive in snowpack tests where they exist. The Feb 10-Jan22 layers are down 1.5-2m and continue to show step down potential.

Avalanche Summary

8 natural avalanches size 2.5 to 3.0 were observed in the east of the Rogers Pass summit highway corridor.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.