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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2017–Mar 2nd, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A stormy forecast could bring us significant snowfall through the weekend. Combined with strong winds natural and human triggered avalanches will be increasingly likely. Time to start reining it in.

Weather Forecast

Today will be unsettled with convective flurries and possible sunny breaks. The big factor today will be wind loading by gusty, W'ly winds. On Thurs, continued snowfall will bring another 10cm with moderate to strong SW winds. Another 20cm expected on Friday with SW winds to 80km/hr. Freezing levels are expected to stay below the Pass level.

Snowpack Summary

15cm of snow overnight, with S'ly winds transporting and loading lees, will have formed new slabs. The Feb 14 layer, down ~50cm, is a crust everywhere but N aspects above 1600m where pockets of surface hoar may lurk. Tests indicate that interface is bonding, but as the load above it increases it may be a perfect bed surface for avalanches to run on

Avalanche Summary

While recent human triggered avalanche activity has been limited to sluffing in steep terrain, and pockets of reactive windslab in the alpine, there have been some close calls. In the region, cornices have been failing, providing large triggers. Generally they have not triggered avalanches, but cornices have triggered a few very large avalanches.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.