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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 13th, 2012–Dec 14th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Rogers Pass is still providing good skiing conditions.  Just watch out for those pockets of slab which could pop out unexpectedly, and be careful of early season hazards like stumps and rocks.  If traveling on glaciers, be aware of thin snow bridges.

Weather Forecast

Very little snowfall is in the forecast for the next couple of days.  Mild temperatures, light winds and some convective activity can be expected today, and dryer conditions for Friday.  More precipitation is expected (up to 12 mm) on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has developed into a wind slab in the alpine, and rests on a well settled mid-pack.  The Nov. 28 and Nov. 16 crust-surface hoar layers, and the Nov. 6 crust can all be found in profiles, but are not very reactive in tests.  There is substantial variation in snow depth depending on elevation and aspect.

Avalanche Summary

Very little avalanche activity has been observed in the past few days.  Avalanches which have been observed are mostly from steep alpine start zones affected by wind.  Wind affected and cross loaded features, and thin areas are most likely to produce human triggered avalanches.  Some loose snow sluffing has also been observed in steep terrain.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.