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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2015–Feb 13th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Warm temperatures will persist until later in the weekend, keeping avalanche problems active.  Extra caution is required during periods of precipitation or sun.

Weather Forecast

A weak front will bring isolated flurries today and rain below 1800m.  A wetter front will move in late friday bringing up to 10cm of wet snow by Saturday morning.  Freezing levels are expected to dip to seasonal norms later in the weekend as we set up for a high pressure period.

Snowpack Summary

20cm of moist snow sits on top of 1m of settled storm snow over the Jan 30 layer. This layer formed a crust to 2200m with spotty surface hoar distribution. Jan 15 surface hoar layer is down 100-150cm and continues to be reactive in tests.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 loose wet avalanche was observed yesterday in the highway corridor on Tupper Minor avalanche path east of Rogers Pass.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.