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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2016–Feb 1st, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Moderate to strong S winds have loaded lee features the last two nights.  The storm snow should be primed for human triggering. 

Weather Forecast

Cooling trend with light winds, alpine temps to -8C and cloudy with sunny periods.  Tomorrow expect light flurries, light winds and continued cooling air temps.

Snowpack Summary

Last week's storm produced 50cm of storm snow which is now settling into a surface slab. The bond of this layer will be improving but it should not be discounted in travel plans. Wind slabs should be expected on lee features after mod-strong S-SW winds last two nights.  Jan 4th interface down 60-100cm may be touchy in areas where it has not failed.

Avalanche Summary

Half a dozen size slides in the size 1.5-2.5 size yesterday in the highway corridor likely triggered by moderate to strong winds.  Overall natural activity has subsided since the avalanche cycle Thursday.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.