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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2013–Feb 17th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Finally some snow!!!  Good weather on Sunday and Monday will be tempting.  Resist the urge to jump into big lines until the new snow has had a chance to settle. 

Weather Forecast

Snow will end late on Sunday morning with up to 20 cm possible.  Skies will clear in the afternoon, Northerly winds will drop and temperatures will fall.  Family Day Monday will be mostly clear with light winds and seasonable temperatures

Snowpack Summary

Soft windslab are developing on Easterly alpine and treeline slopes with continuing snow and moderate West winds.  These new slabs are sitting on hard slab and sastrugi.  The now buried hard slab is bridging weak basal facets.  10 cm+ new snow is sitting on sun crusts and facets below treeline.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche observations due to snow and low clouds on Saturday.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.