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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2015–Jan 18th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Up to 20cm of snow is forecast to fall over the next 36hrs.  This will bury the surface hoar we have been talking about over the past week creating touchy conditions.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

15-20cm of new snow is forecast to fall over the next 24hrs with strong SW winds at higher elevations.  Temperatures will remain above seasonal with freezing levels around 1500m.  The forecasted new snow, warm temps and strong winds will create ideal conditions for storm slab development.

Avalanche Summary

Only a few loose dry avalanches were observed over the past 24hrs.

Snowpack Summary

We received about 5cm of new snow over the past 24hrs which is now burying the 0116 surface hoar layer.  This layer is widespread up to treeline then a bit more spotty in sheltered areas in the Alpine.  Below this layer, the snowpack is mainly facetted with very little structure.  The 1213cr is down 30-45cm but only being found below 2300m.  Moderate sheers persist on this interface on a layer of facets.  Deeper in the snowpack the 1106cr is still lurking.  This layer has not produced an avalanche in some time but with some load, we may see this interface come back to life.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.