Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Jan 17 – 18, 2015Alberta Parks
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Up to 20cm of snow is forecast to fall over the next 36hrs.  This will bury the surface hoar we have been talking about over the past week creating touchy conditions.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Avalanche in the upper snowpack may step down to this deeper layer.  Field tests show a layer of facets on top of this crust producing moderate sheers.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Strong winds combined with new snow and warm temps will create idea conditions for storm slabs to develop on the newly buried surface hoar.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–5
    Be careful in thin weak snowpack areas where you may be able to trigger this weakness.  Alpine terrain where the snowpack is extremely variable will be places to be "heads up"

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

15-20cm of new snow is forecast to fall over the next 24hrs with strong SW winds at higher elevations.  Temperatures will remain above seasonal with freezing levels around 1500m.  The forecasted new snow, warm temps and strong winds will create ideal conditions for storm slab development.

Avalanche Summary

Only a few loose dry avalanches were observed over the past 24hrs.

Snowpack Summary

We received about 5cm of new snow over the past 24hrs which is now burying the 0116 surface hoar layer.  This layer is widespread up to treeline then a bit more spotty in sheltered areas in the Alpine.  Below this layer, the snowpack is mainly facetted with very little structure.  The 1213cr is down 30-45cm but only being found below 2300m.  Moderate sheers persist on this interface on a layer of facets.  Deeper in the snowpack the 1106cr is still lurking.  This layer has not produced an avalanche in some time but with some load, we may see this interface come back to life.

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