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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2014–Jan 18th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

The natural avalanche cycle is slowing down but many slopes that have not yet slid just need a trigger.  Solar radiation will be intense this weekend so keep an eye on overhead slopes in the sun that will weaken throughout the day. See SPAW here.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

No new snow is in the forecast for the next few days.  The big thing to pay close attention to is daytime warming on solar aspects.  The sun has triggerred a few large avalanches over the past few days so watch for deteiorating stability on solar aspects later in the day. 

Avalanche Summary

No new large avalanches today but there were a few solar triggerred avalanches up to sz 1.5 on solar aspects at treeline and below. 

Snowpack Summary

Thin melt freeze crust now exists on solar aspects up to 2400m.  Otherwise, expect pockets of hard slabs overlying a weak facetted base.  This weak facetted base is the reason that many of the avalanaches that have occurred recently involve the entire snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.