Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Unsettled conditions are expected for Saturday morning before the next low pressure system hits the south coast Saturday afternoon or evening. Mainly overcast conditions and light precipitation are expected for Sunday and Monday.Saturday: Precipitation 4-8mm, freezing level am: 1000m pm: 1600m, ridgetop wind: light increasing to moderate S-SWSat. Night: Precipitation 5-10mm, ridgetop wind: moderate SWSunday: Precipitation 2-4mm, freezing level am: 1200m pm: 1500m, ridgetop wind: light-moderate S-SWSun. Night/Monday: Precipitation 3-6mm, freezing level am: 1400m pm: 1800m, ridgetop wind: moderate S-SW
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, several ski-cut wind slabs up to size 1.5 were reported down 10-40cm as well as natural loose wet sluffing from steep rocky features during periods of solar warming.
Snowpack Summary
The new snow sits on a melt-freeze crust which exists on all aspects up to 2000m and to mountain-top on sun-exposed slopes. The recent warmer temperatures have helped to strengthen and settle the upper snowpack. Freezing levels have been rising as high as 2000m recently and snow is reported to be moist or wet to this elevation. In the alpine where the snow remains dry, moderate-strong SW winds have formed wind slabs in leeward features. Large sagging cornices remain a concern, especially during periods of warming. The deep and destructive early February facet/crust layer is now close to 200 cm below the surface. This layer is largely dormant at this time; however, it should remain on your radar, especially when freezing levels are high and the sun is shining.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.