Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

I have relatively low confidence in our forecast based upon highly variable forecasted snowfall amounts.  This avalanche forecast reflects the higher amounts of snowfall, and if less snow falls or in areas with less accumulation, the avalanche danger will be corespondingly less.

New snow will begin later tonight and through tomorrow.  As is often the case the most dangerous slopes will be East facing slopes at and above treeline where Wind Slabs will develop.  As snow increases tomorrow with daytime warming, areas with 8 inches or more of snow may see shallow Storm Slabs build below treeline.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As snow continues to fall on Monday Wind Slabs are likely.  The size and danger of these avalanches will relate directly to the amount of new snow.  Wind deposited snow can accumulate 3-5 times as much as snow in sheltered areas.  If you're traveling through meadows below treeline and seeing a couple of inches of new snow, you likely won't have much to worry about higher up.  Similarly if you're seeing 6 inches of new snow low in the terrain, you can expect a bigger Wind Slab in East facing start zones above treeline.

    Wind Slabs will pose the greatest risk later in the day and further West in the range where snowfall totals will be higher.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Storm Slabs are unlikely to exist on Monday morning, but are possible later in the day as the snow continues to fall.  They are likely to be small and exactly the depth of the new snow.  Hand shears and other quick tests in your skin track are the best tests to evaluate the cohesion of the new snow.  Terrain further East in the range may not see any Storm Slab problem while areas West of the crest are more likey to.

Avalanche Discussion

Today's surface conditions varied widely based on aspect, elevation, and even position in our zone.  We don't have any persistent weak layers.  New snow is in the forecast, and any avlanches will occurr in this new storm snow.  Forecasted storm totals were widely divergent based on model and position in our range.  Areas to the West of or along the crest that receive closer to a foot of new snow could have Considerable avalanche hazard where Wind Slabs exist.  The other side of the coin is that areas receiving less snowfall may have closer to Moderate Hazard at and above treeline, and Low Hazard below treeline.

Regions covered