Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Last night delivered a good refreeze to the snowpack creating substantial surface crusts.  As the sun warms snow surfaces, wet avalanche problems may redevelop particularly at lower elevations.  Ideal riding conditions will be just an inch or two of warming snow resting above supportive crusts.  Hop off your skis, board, or snow machine to ensure that the snowpack is supportive to boots.  If you find that you are sinking past your ankles into wet snow then it is time to move to a cooler aspect.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A good refreeze on Tuesday night will help to limit loose avalanches on Wednesday.  The strong April sun will begin to soften overnight crusts during the day which will increase the chances of you triggering an avalanche, particularly on sunny, lower elevation slopes.  Avoid traveling on or below steep terrain where you find more than about 6" of wet, mushy snow.  Be especially careful above trees, cliffs, and gullies where even small sluffs can cause harm.  Obvious signs of wet loose avalanches include rollerballs, pinwheels, or if you start sinking deep into a saturated snowpack. Move to colder aspects or lower-angle terrain if the snow gets hot and mushy. 

    4/6: A recent Wet Loose avalanche on an east aspect below treeline from Cement Creek. This avalanche likely ran on 4/5. This avalanche entrained enough debris to bury you and ran through numerous trees.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Numerous wet slabs released in recent days caused by meltwater draining into buried weak layers, but a good refreeze on Tuesday night and cooler air temps on Wednesday will reduce meltwater production.  Some uncertainty exists regarding liquid meltwater still moving around in the snowpack particularly at lower elevations.  Avoid traveling on or below hot, sunbaked slopes, especially later in the day.  The safest time to travel on steep avalanche terrain is while surface crusts are still supportive to boots.  You've outstayed your welcome in avalanche terrain if you get off your sled or skis and sink past your ankles into wet snow.  

    4/5: A full-depth Wet Slab on a northeast aspect on Schuylkill Ridge. Believed to have failed midday on 4/5.

Avalanche Discussion

Mother nature has finally brought colder temperatures to give the snowpack a breather from the relentless warm weather and associated meltwater.  As of 5 am, temperatures have been below freezing on near and above treeline terrain for around 24 hours which will have formed stout crusts.  Below treeline slopes have experienced freezing temperatures for around 12 hours or more providing a better opportunity for safe riding conditions.

Clear skies and a strong April sun will soften surfaces during the day particularly on sunny slopes and low elevation terrain.  Monitor the snow surface as it softens through the day to time ideal riding conditions.  If you find that the snowpack is wetter or less supportive than you anticipated move to cooler aspects to find safe and enjoyable conditions.  Expect easterly slopes to soften first followed by southerly and then finally westerly terrain.  Today's weather will provide a bigger window for safe travel as compared to the very warm weather from this past weekend, but later in the day wet avalanche concerns may redevelop. 

The Wet Slab avalanche problem offers a degree of uncertainty today.  Meltwater production has been greatly reduced for the past 24 hours, but there could be isolated places with meltwater infiltrating weak layers deeper in the snowpack at low elevations.  Shoulder aspects, with easterly or westerly components, are the most likely places to find this problem.  Before committing to avalanche terrain take a moment to confirm that the snowpack remains supportive to boots and that just the top few inches have softened.

If you are traveling near cornices at upper elevations be sure to give them a wide berth.  Even though there was a good refreeze, many cornices are overhung with their "roots" or attachment point to ridgelines melted away by recent warm weather.

Regions covered