Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Wet loose avalanches are your biggest concern on Wednesday. They will start coming down on steep easterly slopes in the morning before shifting westerly in the afternoon. A lot of uncertainty exists about the extent of this problem, so your best course of action is to monitor conditions as you travel and shift to drier snow and lower angle slopes when the snow gets wet where you are traveling.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wednesday is forecasted to be the warmest day this week, with a freezing level rising to 6500ft. Cloud cover will slowly increase throughout the day. The weather forecast doesn’t paint a clear enough picture for determining the extent of wet loose avalanches at this time. If there is sunshine in the morning, expect to see avalanches on easterly slopes, shifting south then west as the day progresses. They could become large and cause serious harm if you are caught. Increasing cloud cover might diminish the hazard, but it is unclear how much at this point. It is likely that only upper elevation north aspects will retain dry snow. 

    This is the day to base your travel on constant snowpack assessments. Monitor the snow surface for warming, and pay attention to any rollerballs running downhill. When you start noticing these indicators, no matter what aspect or elevation, it’s time to leave that area. Start moving towards lower angle terrain where there is no overhead hazard, or cooler slopes.

    An example of a wet loose avalanche which ran earlier this year on Mt Herman, similar to what you might see on Wednesday. Photo: Zack McGill

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    A natural avalanche cycle occurred during Sunday’s snow and wind event (observation), and on Monday there were several human triggered wind slab avalanches up to size 2. Wind slabs are stabilizing, but stay alert for any lingering slabs on upper elevation slopes.

     Expect to find them in gullies, around terrain features, or beneath cliffs, and where temperatures stay cooler on the northern half of the compass.  Deposits could be subtle, with only slightly heavier snow than non wind-affected slopes nearby. If you choose to commit to a slope where there is a risk of triggering an avalanche, consider the “what ifs” if the snow slides. Have an escape route planned, ensure you’ve got all your avalanche rescue gear and a reliable partner that is out of harm’s way while you are on the slope.

    One of many human triggered wind slab avalanches which occurred on Monday. Blueberry Chutes, NE 4800ft.

Avalanche Discussion

The spring cycle is beginning to come out in full force, where paying attention to snow conditions at lower elevations and on southerly slopes are a critical factor in daily travel. The day may start out hard and crusty but could change substantially as temperatures warm. Keep these large diurnal swings in mind as you plan your trips.  

The spike in temperature on Wednesday could lead to cornices breaking. As always, travel carefully around them and stand far back from their edge. 

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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