Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
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Highlights

Rain and snowmelt continues this morning, making wet slab avalanches possible until freezing temperatures return, most likely by mid-day. Rain will turn to freezing rain for a period before changing over to snow. Wind slabs may develop today in lee areas of a northwest wind if the upper end of the forecasted amount of snow falls today. Even a small wind slab could be dangerous when combined with the long, sliding fall hazard that will develop later as the snowpack refreezes. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Another half an inch of water will fall as some form of precipitation today. As evidenced by the wind slabs which developed earlier in the week with a similarly small amount of snow, count on the wind slab problem to capture your attention later today and tomorrow. Wind speeds are forecast to be in the range where these slabs will grow in size but not be pounded into hard, stubborn slabs. Assess the slopes that contain these slabs for signs of reactivity and recognize that recently formed wind slabs are the most sensitive to human triggering.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Prolonged warming of previously dry wind slabs on mostly east-facing terrain created conditions for this avalanche type yesterday.  Rain and snowmelt continues to drain through the upper snowpack this morning so this avalanche type remains on the list of hazards. The snowpack will begin to refreeze this morning and eliminate this problem. If you find yourself traveling on steep slopes with wet, slushy snow deeper than your boot, triggering one of these slides will be possible. Loose wet sluffs are one indicator that this avalanche type is possible. Wet snow will freeze rapidly today, most likely this morning at most elevations,  when the temperature dips below freezing.

Avalanche Discussion

March came in like a lamb and out like a lamb this year, with no real lions in sight. Just 22” of snow was recorded on the summit during the month that averages 45”. Temperatures were about 1.5F above normal which lines up with the lean snow conditions at lower elevations. The snowpack is plenty deep for more days of spring skiing in the bowls but the current weather pattern doesn’t inspire confidence in a long lasting corn harvest. After this cold snap today and tomorrow, the weather seems to be lining up to produce the cold nights and warm days that yield good skiing. Just be sure to keep the icefall and crevasse hazard in mind if you plan to attend the big spectacle in Tucks. Lunch Rocks, recently dubbed Crunch Rocks, will be in the bullseye for icefall and the waterfall hole in the Lip will be easily large enough to fall into. The Lip waterfall hole, along with the hole in the fall line below, have been the scene of numerous fatal accidents over the years. Be sure to have a clear picture of the terrain below before committing to a descent, by either climbing your intended route or by carefully assessing the terrain from a strategic vantage point. A photo taken from a distance can help you identify your position above the terrain. 

 

The snowpack at all elevations has changed dramatically over the past week due to several days with warm temperatures and rain.

  • The lower half of Sherburne ski trail is mostly mud and rocks. A rope across the ski trail at crossover #5 signals the closed trail below. Cross over and walk down the Tuckerman Ravine trail at this point. 
  • The ski trail to the Gulf of Slides is likely wet and muddy for the first mile near Pinkham, including a few stream crossings. 
  • Increased streamflow from rain and melting snow last week has undermined snow and weakened snow bridges over stream beds. 
  • The waterfall hole is large enough to fall into in the Headwall area of Tuckerman Ravine. 
  • Rotten snow off trail remains knee to hip deep. 
  • The Little Headwall has melted and turned back into a waterfall with open water upstream. The safest way down from Tuckerman Ravine is hiking down the Tuckerman Ravine Trail to Hermit Lake.

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Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

 

The Harvard Cabin is now closed. The only camping option in Tuckerman or Huntington Ravines can be found at Hermit Lake. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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