Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack at all elevations offers a mix of strong but often breakable crust, an icy, hard older surface with some recently deposited firm, wind packed snow. Crampons, an ice axe and the ability to move carefully over consequential terrain will be necessary to prevent a sliding fall, an event which has proven to be dangerous or even deadly. Avalanche danger is LOW, natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Watch for isolated pockets of softer and possibly unstable snow which will most likely be found in a few wind sheltered areas at lower and middle elevations. 

The Winter Lion Head Route is the most direct route to climb to the summit from Pinkham Notch. The Tuckerman Ravine trail through the Bowl, and the Lion Head Summer Trail are much more exposed and pass through avalanche terrain.

The Tuckerman Inferno Pentathlon returns on March 20th for it’s 20th anniversary. The event is a key fundraiser for the avalanche center has been re-imagined to include fat-tire biking, nordic skiing and snowshoeing before the run to Tucks and ski down. Check it out here.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs at mid and upper elevations are firm and chalky at the surface. Larger drifts may have a softer, weaker layer below so continue to be suspect of the obvious wind loaded slopes of drifted snow. The wind slabs are currently unreactive and  fairly well bonded to the rain crust beneath, though this may change as temperatures warm. Small softer and possibly more reactive wind slabs at lower elevations will also weaken as they warm. Keep an eye on the temperature.

     

    Evaluate the consequences of triggering even a small slide and make your terrain choices accordingly. Long sliding falls are possible in steep terrain, especially high near the ridgelines.  Using proper self-arrest tools will be your only option to stop yourself if you begin sliding, even on low angle slopes. Yesterday, 4 skiers returning to Tuckerman Ravine were forced to walk half of the way down HIllman’s Highway when the chalky, firm wind deposited snow ran out, leaving them with the choice of side slipping the icy crust, which is mostly breakable, in crampons and hard boots, but not while on skis. They made the wise choice and walked down and kept good skiing that  they found elsewhere as the highlight of the day.

Avalanche Discussion

Our snowpack has been scoured, pounded and packed by a week of very high winds. Stability concerns are limited to isolated, small wind slabs found tucked behind and under rock buttresses and near the tops of gullies and chutes. The greater concern today remains the chance for a dangerous, long sliding fall on the icy snow surface. Yesterday in Huntington Ravine, a snow ranger and volunteer found similar conditions in Diagonal and Yale Gully as the previously mentioned four skiers in Hillman’s Highway. While attempting to retrieve ice screws and an axe left behind during a self-rescue on Saturday night, the pair found a mostly breakable crust mixed with an impenetrable icy old surface, likely the December 24th, 157 mph wind slabs that has remained exposed due to the drought conditions. This variability is tough to identify visually and can be a surprise if moving too quickly. The crust is also breakable near rocks and bushes, creating another trip and fall hazard. Though climbing conditions are good, the icy surfaces increase the fall hazard significantly. Soft snow for skiing is limited across the terrain and mixed with the icy surfaces that make the long, sliding fall hazard. Evaluate the snow carefully and consider the boulders, bushes in your fall line. Better yet, wait until more snowfall or warming creates better conditions.

Long sliding falls are number one cause of death among skiers and mountaineers in the Presidential Range in the snow covered months. Hypothermia and avalanches run a close race for the second and third spots. If you need a reminder of how fast these falls can happen, you can revisit this video from a few years back. The fall resulted in near fatal injuries and a very expensive helicopter ride. Note the ineffectiveness of an otherwise effectively employed self-arrest pole on the refrozen surface. 

 

Thanks to everyone for taking the time to submit all the observations of snow and avalanche conditions, both inside and outside our avalanche forecast area. Please keep them coming.  Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

Our next free online event is coming up Thursday, March 18 @ 7PM -Women’s Backcountry Talk- A Free Zoom Webinar. Signup is required. 

 

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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