Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Plan on finding dangerous conditions at upper and middle elevations as snow continues to drift into steep, east-facing terrain and cross loaded gullies. Drifted snow may release naturally in the steepest terrain, and is likely to avalanche from a human trigger. You could trigger avalanches 1-3 feet thick today that will easily bury a person. Wind drifted slopes should be approached with caution. The avalanche danger today is CONSIDERABLE.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Increasing northwest wind today will move remaining snow from the fetch of upper elevations building slabs in primarily east facing terrain. Natural avalanches may be possible where drifting snow accumulates the most, including the lower half of steep gullies where spin-drifting snow steadily accumulates during active loading events. Freshly formed slabs of wind drifted snow at these wind speeds will be on the softer side (1F) and reactive to a human trigger.

    New slabs may be limited in size due to relatively small snow totals, however layers of drifted snow formed over the last few days on many aspects could be pulled into moving avalanche debris and contribute to the size of a slide today. This will be especially so on east and southeast aspects. The Tuckerman Ravine headwall from Left Gully to Sluice are the target areas with the greatest potential for a large avalanche today. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent cold temperatures and crusts have driven a faceting problem in areas of thinner snowpack. Natural avalanche activity has occurred on this layer at lower elevations outside our forecast area. Faceted snow has been observed more locally beneath the hard 157mph crust within our forecast area at 4200’. You can also find faceted snow around the Christmas rain crust though that layer is much more deeply buried at mid and upper elevations. This problem was identified near the ground at lower & mid elevations with a thinner snowpack. Snowfall or a skier/climber could overload these weak layers, initiating an avalanche in the right conditions. Look and listen for collapsing and whumpfing.

Avalanche Discussion

Limited visibility in the field yesterday left us unable to accurately gauge snowpack changes in the start zones of avalanche paths at mid and upper elevations. Conditions yesterday and today are optimal for loading and building wind slabs, though snow totals are somewhat low, with low SWE amounts. Be conservative with your decision making today. Plan on finding potentially large wind slabs today, and carefully evaluate the size and consequence of a slide before easing into any avalanche terrain.

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From January 30 to February 6, 15 avalanche fatalities occurred in the US along with many close calls. This was the deadliest week for avalanche fatalities in more than 100 years. The reason for the spike is unclear, but experts looking at this suggest a combination of factors that include a particularly dangerous snowpack across the US and the increased number of users. One important detail is that all of the victims were experienced backcountry users, not people venturing into avalanche terrain for the first time. Given the events this past week, consider taking a minute today to read about the accidents and reflect on your own decision making when in avalanche terrain. If anything, we can all learn something which hopefully influences better outcomes in the future.  

A complete incident analysis and report of the fatal avalanche accident that occured in the Ammonoosuc Ravine on February 1 is available here. 

Information on the recent US avalanche fatalities can be found here.

An interview with Simon Trautman of the National Avalanche Center can be found here.  

Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

Thursday, February 11 @ 7PM - Patagonia Films Event - Solving for Z

In this film, IFMGA Mountain Guide Zahan Billimoria explores his relationship with risk and reward in the mountains where stunning cinematography and engaging storytelling make this film truly stand out.  This event is FREE and we are excited to host Zahan live at the end of the showing to answer some of your questions live! 

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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