Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Expect generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for small, isolated wind drifts in upper elevation terrain. A hard overnight freeze and cooler temps today should prevent most wet snow avalanches.

This is our last daily Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for the season. We will issue General Avalanche Information tomorrow and then again on Friday.

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack is generally stable, and our avalanche forecast season seems to be going out with a whimper. As usual, LOW danger doesn't mean no danger and there are a few things to keep an eye out for:

  • Much of our forecast area experienced strong to extreme winds yesterday and into the overnight hours. Two separate groups of snow professionals in the Sawtooths made relevant observations regarding the wind: it knocked them down! There was little snow to be transported, and observers did not report any wind slab formation. Still, isolated small wind slabs are a possibility today in upper elevation and alpine terrain. These are unlikely to be a significant problem unless you are skiing or riding in exposed or consequential terrain. 
  • Overnight, skies were clear and temps were in the single digits to teens. As a result, the snowpack will be locked up hard this morning. If you're planning to go for corn, the thaw may be delayed by cooler temps. Conditions are unlikely to get soft enough today for wet snow avalanches to occur.

Be sure to catch up on the final week of the forecast season in Ethan's latest Weekend Update. And join Chris for the last Digging Deeper of the season this Wednesday, April 14th, titled Forecasts Have Ended – Now What?

WINTER 2020-21 HIGHLIGHTs (AND LOWLIGHTS)

I don't know about you, but towards the end of the season, the winter always feels like a blur. As we wrap up with LOW danger, it's easy to forget that the first 2/3 of the winter was exceptionally unstable. Here's a quick recap of what happened:

  • Storms prior to Thanksgiving put down a solid base of early season snow—we thought it was going to be a record-setting La Niña season!
  • But wait—not so fast! These storms were followed by 3 weeks of drought conditions and cold temperatures, creating an especially weak and widespread persistent facet layer which was finally buried on December 11. 
  • Nearly every subsequent loading event produced avalanche activity on this facet layer. The most significant avalanche cycle occurred after a late-January storm dropped 3-4' of new snow in the mountains (and in Ketchum!). 
  • Newer weak layers that formed in mid-January came into play during the late-January storm, especially in our northern mountains. One of these layers was responsible for a tragic avalanche fatality in Smiley Creek on February 19th.
  • It was an exceptionally unstable year—the danger was CONSIDERABLE or higher on 64 days. That's over half of the 120 avalanche forecasts we issued this season! We recorded over 230 avalanches that were large enough to bury or injure a person (D2 on the size scale). Of these, 19 were human-triggered—and most were released remotely from lower-angled terrain.
  • What had already been below-average snowfall shut off at the end of February. March was extremely dry—our mountains picked up less than 18" of new snow during the entire month. Only a few inches have fallen so far in April. 
  • Due to the lack of loading, the danger dropped to LOW on March 7th. It's been LOW to MODERATE (one day of CONSIDERABLE) since then, with wet loose and wind slabs being the main problems.
  • La Niña ended up being La None-ya! We're wrapping up our forecast season with a snowpack that's 65-80% of normal.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR OBSERVATIONS!

This winter we received nearly 1000 observations—300 from the recreating public and more than 600 submitted by local professionals. From all of us at the SAC, THANK YOU! It's impossible to overstate the importance of this information. It increases the accuracy of the avalanche forecast, which in turn helps the entire backcountry community. 

PLEASE HELP US HELP YOU:  We want to learn more about how you use the Forecast and our products. Kelly Rice-McNeil (Eastern Oregon University) and Victor McNeil (Wallowa Avalanche Center) are spearheading a project to understand how you use avalanche center products and, ultimately, to improve them. Help us help you by taking 10 minutes or so to fill out a survey. Teaser: there is a little SAC-specific questioning involved—please participate and get your backcountry partners, friends, family, and clients involved! Google Forms link:  https://forms.gle/YwgEwHRnT4ucSF226  

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