Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions remain downright scary. You are likely to trigger large, 2-3 foot thick avalanches in both sheltered terrain and in windier areas. Avalanches may be triggered remotely—from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes. Be careful out there. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    I saw over 40 fresh, large, natural avalanches yesterday (Observation and Avalanche Occurrences) while scoping the mountains for slides. Some were big enough to destroy vehicles. Just east of this zone in Baker Creek, Ben and Mitch saw dozens of fresh natural avalanches, remotely triggered a couple from gentle terrain, and watched a group of snowmobilers safely trigger more avalanches remotely. South of this zone, the Soldier Mountain Ski Patrol reported a large, approximately 4-foot thick natural slide on Peak 2.  Sun Valley Heil Ski staff snapped a great photo (right/below) of multiple slab avalanches in the Goat Creek area. Public and professional observers reported snowpack collapsing and cracking, even in heavily traveled areas near Galena Summit. 

    Recent natural and human-triggered avalanches, check. Remotely triggered avalanches, check. Snowpack collapsing, check. Terrible snowpack structure, check. That's all the bullseye data I need to figure out how to travel today; with my tail between my legs.

    The natural avalanche cycle has probably run its course (for now), but triggering large persistent slab avalanches remains likely in both wind-loaded and sheltered terrain. Remotely triggering slides from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes remains a very real possibility. Small, thin wind slab avalanches you trigger near ridgelines could "step down", failing on layers deeper in the snowpack and becoming much wider than the initial avalanche.

    Think long and hard about the consequences of triggering an avalanche before riding or skiing steep slopes or playing below them today. 

    (1/5/2021) This large persistent slab avalanche released naturally during the Jan 4-5 storm on an E aspect near 9900' in the Goat Ck drainage (near Durrance Mtn). Sun Valley Heli Ski photo.

Avalanche Discussion

Over the past few weeks, each storm has produced avalanche "hot spots", geographical areas where widespread natural and human-triggered avalanches occur. The increased activity has been a result of both the storm loads and weak layer structure and distribution. While our observations following the recent storm are limited, here are some of the current hot spots where we know the snowpack is angry:

  • The Smoky Mountains south of Smiley Creek and Galena Summit (Frenchman Ck, Salmon River Headwaters, Baker Ck, headwaters of Warm Springs Ck)
  • The mountains near Smiley Creek (Cabin Ck, lower portions of Beaver and Smiley Ck drainages, Horton Peak area)
  • The southern White Clouds and northern Boulder Mountains just north of Galena Summit
  • The Boulder Mountains south and east of Boulder Peak
  • The northeastern Sawtooth Mountains (from about Redfish Lake north)
  • The Soldier Mountains

This is NOT an exhaustive list. These are the areas that have earned a not-so-special shout out based on information collected yesterday. Just because an area is not listed DOES NOT mean it's safe. However, I am confident the listed areas are bad places to push into steeper terrain right now. 

Regions covered