Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human triggered avalanches are possible, particularly in wind-loaded terrain. Pay attention to cracks shooting out in front of your sled or skis, a clear sign that you’ve found unstable snow. Avalanches may be triggered remotely — from above, below, and to the sides of slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A thin snowpack with weak layers exists in this area. However, in most places there is not a significant slab stressing this weak snow. It will likely take the combination of wind-stiffened snow in an area with one of these weak layers in order to create avalanches, though isolated wind drifts may be a problem in their own right. On Friday, riders in the Soldier Mountains found that exact combination of weak snow and wind loading when they triggered a small avalanche on a wind-affected slope (see photo).

    Keep these layers of weak snow in mind going forward, it will snow again at some point. Read more about our weak layers in the forecast discussion section below.

Avalanche Discussion

Although the current picture isn't as grim in the Soldiers and the mountains above the Wood River Valley, the future doesn't look great. The main ingredient that we are lacking down south right now is slab, but that can change quickly when snowfall returns. The current conditions in our northern forecast zones can be seen as an indicator of what may be in store for the southern areas. Up north, we are dealing with a persistent slab monster. Layers of weak, sugary snow (facets) are a common problem in our area. However, a widespread deposit of reactive surface hoar like the one we have now is an infrequent occurrence. This surface hoar developed in the clear, cold days that followed the set of storms over the Thanksgiving holiday. I’ve found these weak, feathery crystals buried in the mountains spanning from Banner Summit, down to the Sawtooths and Western Smokys, across the valley into the White Clouds, south to Galena Pass, further south into the Boulders, and across Trail Creek into the mountains above the Wood River Valley. In short, I’ve found it everywhere I’ve looked. The nature of the snowpack varies widely across our forecast zones, but this layer is a disturbing constant. 

Yesterday was the first day since the storm ended that we did not receive a report of a human-triggered avalanche. However, obvious signs of instability, such as cracking and collapsing, continue to point out this problem. On Saturday, two separate parties of skiers triggered avalanches in the Galena Summit area. That same day, two separate groups of riders triggered avalanches on wind-loaded slopes in the Soldier Mountains. On Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, as I traveled on ridgelines that we’re not exposed to avalanche hazard, I remotely triggered multiple avalanches. These avalanches occurred in three different mountain ranges. Don’t just skim over these details, this is important stuff. Take a minute to let that sink in.

If you’re the kind of person who reads the two paragraphs above and thinks, “I wish there was more to worry about,” I’ve got some great news for you. Large, sugary grains of depth hoar can be found in the Sawtooths, Western Smokys, White Clouds, northern Boulders, and Banner Summit area. On Sunday, in the White Clouds, I observed a 600-800’ wide avalanche that had failed just above the ground on this weak snow, wiping out the vast majority of the snowpack. That same day, skiers in the Sawtooths yesterday reported unstable snowpack test results and widespread cracking and collapsing on this layer and they stuck to low angle slopes not threatened by avalanche terrain above.

The year is just getting going but the list of problems to worry about is long. Complex, overlapping patterns of weak snow are very difficult to deal with. The easiest solution is to exercise conservative route finding and decision making in your backcountry travels. I know, that’s not what you want to hear. I’d love nothing more than to be running around in the mountains, skiing and riding everything in sight. But we don’t have any input into the behavior of the snowpack; the only thing we have control over is ourselves.

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