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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2017–Feb 14th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Olympics.

Tuesday should be a mostly safe avalanche day in the Olympics and Cascades. Watch for signs of loose wet snow steep sun exposed slopes. Use caution travelling on steep slopes with a slick surface crust.

Detailed Forecast

Tuesday morning should start out mostly sunny but increasing clouds will be seen by Tuesday afternoon especially in the Olympics and northwest Cascades. Alpine winds will increase with high freezing levels and mild temperatures but with cooler east winds in the Cascade Passes. Significant rain or snow should hold off until Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Some initial sunshine and another day of mild temperatures Tuesday should make loose wet avalanches possible on steep slopes facing the sun. Be cautious on sun exposed slopes if the wet surface snow becomes deeper than a few inches.

Older wind slabs should have mostly settled and stabilized the past couple days. Significant new wind slab is not expected Tuesday as southeast to southwest winds won't transport sun affected snow. But continue to watch for signs of wind deposited snow on north facing terrain features.

Some slopes exposed to recent winds or where less new snow was received after rain changed to snow may have an exposed very slick crust. Be cautious of uncontrolled falls and avoid traveling on steep slopes with slick crust in terrain where an uncontrolled fall could have serious consequences.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

A strong storm cycle Friday, 2/3 through Monday 2/6 deposited about 3 feet of snow at Hurricane Ridge.

Strong SSW flow carried a frontal system with deep moisture across the Northwest on Wednesday 2/8 and Thursday 2/9 with rain to high elevations in the Olympics. About 2 inches of rain fell at Hurricane Ridge by Thursday afternoon.

Moderate showers and strong W-SW winds along with a cooling trend Friday deposited about 10 inches of snow at Hurricane Ridge Friday. 

High pressure Saturday to Monday brought increasing sunshine and warming temperatures. Temperatures reached the 40's and 50's in many areas of the Olympics and Cascades on Monday. This has brought snowpack settlement, some small loose wet avalanche activity and a decreasing avalanche danger.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge on Friday and found good skiing in non-wind affected areas well below ridges. Closer to the ridgeline, new wind slabs were quickly building on the lee easterly slopes up to 1 foot deep. These slabs were very sensitive to ski triggering with cracking readily observed on test slopes. One large loose wet avalanche was observed by the road crew Friday morning, with a few small trees in the 6-8 ft debris pile. Large cornices that had built on W-NW aspects earlier in the week were quickly being eroded by the strong W-SW winds. 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.