Happy New Year! Warm air and sun may create some touchy pockets of wind slab in the short term. Avalanche danger trending down for the weekend.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Clear skies and light winds throughout the forecast period. Valley temperatures between -10 overnight and -5 during the day. Alpine temperatures between 0.0 and +5.0 on Friday, and around 0.0 or slightly below freezing on Saturday and Sunday.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported. With solar radiation and warmer alpine temperatures forecast for the next few days, loose wet avalanches may occur on steep, sun-exposed slopes.
Snowpack Summary
About 10-20cm of low-density snow fell between last Saturday and Monday. In exposed, high elevation terrain, moderate winds may have shifted these accumulations into soft wind slabs in the immediate lee of ridge crests. Due to continued cool temperatures, these wind slabs may have taken more time than usual to settle and gain strength. Solar radiation has also come into play, and depending on the time of day, steep solar aspects may be moist or refrozen. Recent field reports suggest deeper snowpack weaknesses have now gained considerable strength, and the mid and lower snowpack are considered to be generally strong and well-settled.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.